Since 1985 teams coming off a home game as a dog now facing a non-conference as an away dog 14-16.5 points are 42-17 ATS (79.6%). That is what Virginia has to deal with this week when they face Conference USA Southern Miss. Don't get me wrong Southern Miss is an excellent team and program, but I think this line is a little over board. The reason is because Virginia has looked awful losing to Richmond and TCU. I can't really defend the Richmond loss, but TCU is one of the better teams around and they only loss 30-14. TCU could probably take care of Southern Miss themselves. Southern Miss is actually 0-7 ATS as double digit home favorites vs. opponents off a SU and ATS loss. So why might Virginia stay in the game or win outright? Defense! It's the name of the game and they have played well getting some pressure from their line. This secondary is one of the most talented in the ACC. They should be able to contain Austin Davis, and WR DeAndre Brown. Southern Miss only got to the end zone twice a week ago along with a defensive score and two FG, but they showed they are vulnerable when they face better defenses. That is what Virginia has and they have a coach that has been here before. Al Groh has taken the program from 0-2 to a bowl game in 2002, so do not think this team is not motivated to pull something similar. I think what will happen is that Virginia will do a better job of protecting their QB allowing the new spread offense to work and move the ball enough to get the cover.


Florida Gators will be well motivated in this game and I can not lay off. Many people feel good about Tennessee because Marty Kiffin is their D-coordinator and he did wonders year in and year out as the Bucs D-coordinator in the NFL, but this is not the NFL. It is different to coach in college it is more rah rah and that's just not Kiffin. Plus it does not matter how well they play on defense it's their offense that is going to be struggling to score and may give up a few points of their own. Tennessee struggled against UCLA defense of the Pac-10. Now they face the Gators who are just licking their chops over the trash talk that Lane Kiffin was talking in the off season. Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11. The spread is high yes, but I don't know that the Vols will score. Which means can Florida put 30 points on the board? Absolutely how about 40 or 50!

Analysis due back Friday Night!

Where to find Freddy?